Wassup y’all! Ya boy (it me, ya boy) is back with the Women’s NCAA Final Four Preview. After two intense weekends of hoop that saw upsets, drama and of course heartbreak, two more nights of basketball with three total games are left in the season. This year, chalk rang true as we have three number one seeds left: Texas, UCLA and South Carolina, with UConn there as a number two seed. Let’s look at the ways in which each team can cut down the nets, and how they possible can be thwarted from doing so.
Texas
Why They’ll Win
Defense, defense, defense. The Longhorns’ road to the championship starts on the end where their team does not have the basketball. Texas puts incredible pressure on their opponents’ guards, especially in inbound situations. Against TCU, Texas employed a, “three-on-two” method in which three defenders—led by senior guard Rori Harmon—defended the two closest TCU players to the inbounding player. This led to at least three five-second violations and a host of frantic turnovers and forced Big 12 Player of the Year Hailey Van Lith to have to expend more energy to bring the ball across halfcourt. And with a subpar performance from Sedona Prince, the Horned Frogs were leaned on and unable to ever truly threaten Texas in the second half. If Texas plays like that, along with Madison Booker living up to her All-American, Conference-Player-of-the-Year-in-two-separate-conferences ability, the Longhorns could very well cut down the nets. Head coach Vic Shaeffer will have his team prepared, and they will be formidable for South Carolina and possibly beyond.
Why They Won’t
No matter how well a team plays defense, the name of the game of basketball is to score points. Texas will not shut out any opponent for 40 minutes, and the Longhorns themselves struggle to be dynamic on offense. Part of this is by design, as they lead the nation in two-point field goals. But part of those twos are out of necessity, as they just don’t have a lot of shooting. South Carolina can match Texas defensively, and has the added benefit of having beaten Texas twice earlier in the year. A fourth matchup means there won’t be anything new either team can surprise the other with, and in games like that, shot-making is mandatory. Booker is an incredible closer to be so young, but that does not dismiss the fact Texas is better equipped to wear teams down on defense than keep up scoring with them. Both teams on the other side of the bracket can get points up without becoming defensive sieves. Texas will have its hands full, for sure.
South Carolina
Why They’ll Win
There is something to be said about championship experience and poise. While it is impossible to quantify in any tangible way, there is proof that prior experience in a situation improves one’s response to similar situations in the future. South Carolina is the most Tournament-tested team left, by far. And whether you believe they’re playing with fire facing second-half deficits in three consecutive games or that just cements how much valor the Gamecocks have in the face of basketball danger, South Carolina knows how to play in pressurized games—and their coach Dawn Staley has the patience of an entire convent. If South Carolina were to lose for the first time in the Tournament since 2023, it will not be because the moment is too big for coach nor team. That’s a big advantage, as nerves are natural to heighten this weekend.
South Carolina’s guards are also not going to cost their team the game. Sometimes, especially in college postseason play, guards have a tendency to let their egos guide their decision making. This can lead to them playing outside themselves and costing their teams on both offense and defense. South Carolina does not have that issue with the likes of Te-Hina Paopao, Raven Johnson and Bree Hall. Even sensational sophomore MiLaysia Fulwiley has yet to know defeat in the Tournament, and she brought South Carolina back in the Sweet Sixteen game against Maryland with her speed and quickness. No team will be able to make South Carolina quit with an early deficit.
Why They Won’t
As much as South Carolina is as balanced as sturdy an operation on the floor, there isn’t much that’s dynamic about them. Sure, not having that phenomenal fulcrum in the post like Aliyah Boston and Kamilla Cardoso has stunted the kind of offensive mismatches the Gamecocks are used to having. But even with them there, the guards were not asked to be explosive on offense. Sometimes, a team needs a different spark that isn’t as buttoned-up. That can be Fulwiley and freshman Joyce Edwards, who is First-Team All-SEC this year, but no one on the team—by design—can consistently call themselves South Carolina’s go-to person on offense. That can result in some confusion when it’s time to go get a bucket. Again, Texas has seen them three other times this season, so it may just come down to individual ability during clutch time. South Carolina won’t be rattled, but not having a hero when the world needs saving may spell doom for the crew from Columbia and keep them from a second-straight title.
UConn
Why They’ll Win
They have the best player left in the Tournament. They also have a coach whose won eleven championships. Even including the fact Huskies coach Geno Auriemma is closing in on a decade without a title, the last time he won one, he won four in a row. I do not think he has forgotten what is like to capture a title, and Paige Bueckers is the top pro prospect in the women’s game. Add senior Azzi Fudd and freshman Sarah Strong, and the talent is there to carry UConn to the title.
The Huskies’ offense is the most explosive from the perimeter left in the Tournament. Four players in the team have made at least 50 threes this season, and they shoot over 38 percent from distance as a team. South Carolina experienced how hot UConn can get in their matchup, in which UConn won 87-58 back in February. Teams must be very wary that at any moment, Paige and the Huskies can go on a run their opponents can’t match. And that run will not feel like an outlet for them.
Why They Won’t
Talent has never been an issue for the Huskies. Since Auriemma has been at the helm, the list of collegiate and pro legends to come through Storrs, Connecticut, is near-infinite (I’m writing for one’s publications, right now). Even looking at the roster and coach, it is very difficult to find a legitimate reason Connecticut won’t win the championship. However, UConn is not infallible. They have lost three games, and maybe the deterrent to the Huskies’ trophy run lies in those losses. In two of the three defeats, UConn did not make their threes. That’s a very simple formula for losing—it’s difficult to win when you don’t make shots. It could just be that simple, as any team can have an off night. Trusting so much in a shot made less than two-fifths of the time, while really good comparatively, still means you miss more than you make. The law of averages operates in, “as above, so below,” which means UConn can possibly perform better than their 38 percent average and they can perform worse. Just ask Tennessee, a team that both beat UConn and did not make it past the Sweet Sixteen shooting threes at a high clip. UConn doesn’t totally commit to the long ball like the Vols, but jump shooting is still a big part of their philosophy. If enough shots don’t go through the net, the Huskies could be denied from cutting down the nets.
UCLA
Why They’ll Win
Lauren Betts also has claim to arguably be the best player left in the Tournament, if not the best player so season. This claim is not solely about her being 6’7”. Her skill level is super high, with incredible agility, footwork, and instructional tape worthy sealing in the post. The junior plays 30 minutes a game, and I’m sure that number would be higher if UCLA didn’t have as many lopsided victories as they do. Betts is both in shape and foul-avoidant. In the game against LSU, Betts picked up two personal fouls in the first quarter for the first time in her career. So this means that teams will have to content with Betts for most of the game on both ends of the floor, and there won’t be many moments without her presence in the game. Of course, UCLA has so much talent that even without Betts playing in the second quarter of that LSU game, the team extended their lead going into the half. She’s not all the Bruins have, but she is certainly a joker the other teams just do not carry in their decks. If Lauren Betts can impose her will on Friday and potentially Sunday, the UCLA women’s team can very easily be this year’s champs.
Also, to make another simple point, UCLA has only lost two games this season. Those two games were to chief rival USC, and they avenged that loss to capture the PAC-12, uh, Big Ten conference tournament championship. The Trojans are no longer in the bracket, meaning no team can feel too confident in believing UCLA is vulnerable. In November, the Bruins handily beat the Gamecocks 77-62, and the game wasn’t that close. They did not play Texas or UConn but it can be argued that UCLA has been better then those teams all year even if they were behind them in rankings during parts of the season. UCLA is really good, and there are times when the best team simply wins. That was the case for South Carolina last year. Maybe it could be the case for UCLA this year.
Why They Won’t
Unlike the men’s program, UCLA’s women’s basketball team has yet to win the NCAA Basketball Championship. Until this season, they had not reached the Final Four before. And like I explained with South Carolina, experience matters in highly-pressurized competitions. Some people are adept at performing well through nerves, but that doesn’t make them impervious to nervousness. This goes for player and coach, as Bruins head coach Cori Close had never reached the Final weekend, either. Close has been there since 2011, and this is her first and only head coaching gig. She’s been remarkable in Westwood upon arrival, winning nearly 70 percent of her games. Of course, the addition of Betts, guards Kiki Rice and Gabriela Jaquez bolstered the program to further national prominence, but she is a very good coach and floor-raiser of her team. That said, UCLA was good enough to win it last year, and their guards and lack of feeding Betts factors in to their loss to LSU in the Sweet Sixteen a season ago. I mentioned guards and ego earlier. Another way that ego can manifest is in seemingly taking matchups personally and wanting so badly to show up the direct opponent in front of them. I do not know these players, so I cannot speak for their feelings. But last year against LSU, foregoing giving Betts the ball severely limited their chance to win. Credit to Kim Mulkey and the Tigers for defensive execution. However, to go back to the spades analogy, not feeding Betts is similar to keeping your aces for later in the hands—it’s too late to use them and now they aren’t as impactful. UCLA must avoid the trap of trying to go perimeter shot for perimeter shot, especially with UConn, and especially if UConn goes on a quick burst of scoring from deep. The temptation to be a hero is real during the Tournament, and UCLA must let the cape find them and not have players trying to put one on that’s too big for them. So that’s the Women’s NCAA Final Four Preview. Catch the games starting Friday at 7 p.m. Eastern on ESPN and continuing Sunday, April 6th on the same network. Catch y’all next time!
