Wassup y’all! Ya boy (it me, ya boy) is back with another post. This one is the officially unofficially NBA playoff preview for the 2024-25 season. Let’s look at each matchup with some detail.
Eastern Conference
#5 Milwaukee Bucks vs. #4 Indiana Pacers
This series sees these two opponents matched up for the second year in a row; I try to avoid calling these “rematches” because the teams are not exactly the same as last season. This is especially true for Milwaukee, who will not have Khris Middleton, who was traded to Washington earlier this year. They will have Kyle Kuzma, who does have playoff experience from his time with the Lakers, including a championship with them. The Bucks also will have Giannis Antetokounmpo this time, who is coming off yet another stellar season. Giannis posted the second-highest field goal percentage in a 30+ ppg season in NBA history—only behind his season last year. As Damian Lillard recovers from blood clots in his calf and may miss some or all of this series, the Bucks will hopefully have the Greek Freak for more than just one or two games.
As for the Pacers, most of their team is back from making last year’s Conference Finals and quietly won 50 games this year. Point guard Tyrese Haliburton has returned to his 2023-24 All-Star form after a slow start to begin this season. Indiana still plays at a feverish, um, pace, and have the advantage of home court. Can the Pacers overwhelm the Bucks before Milwaukee gets to full strength? Or will Giannis and his relentless style lead the Bucks into the next round?
#6 Detroit Pistons vs. #3 New York Knicks
For a lot of publications, broadcasts, podcasts and TV shows, this series is where it feels appropriate to take some kind of shot at the Knicks. For a 51-win team who has one of the best starting fives in all the Association, with an experienced coach, veteran players in their primes and versatility on the perimeter with their wing players, it does feel like something is missing with the Knicks, huh? Set aside the fact that coach Tom Thibodeau plays his starters abnormally high minutes each game compared to the rest of the league. Set aside the fact that the Knicks had two All-Star starters and that new acquisition Karl-Anthony Towns has played at an All-NBA level in tandem with Jalen Brunson. Also set aside that the other new acquisition, Mikal Bridges, has also fit well with Josh Hart and OG Anunoby. Something still feels…off, doesn’t it? Like, it feels like the Knicks are good but there is a cap on his good they can be, despite their talent. With the addition of Towns and the lengthy absence of backup center Mitchell Robinson, the Knicks’ defense had taken a considerable step back. Much has already been pointed out about how the Knicks struggled in the regular season against the three best teams in the NBA—OKC, Cleveland and Boston, so that also does not inspire confidence in the Knicks ability to finally break through and reach the Finals for the first time in over two dozen years. But the fact is the Knicks are good, and have done well with the moves they’ve made in the off-season.
In comes Detroit, who was the first team in NBA history to triple their win total from the previous season. Speaking of All-NBA caliber seasons, Cade Cunningham is in position to earn his first selection, averaging over 25 points and 9 assists a game. The Pistons play with a lot of tightness and fervor—similar to how the Knicks played last season. But there is limited playoff experience amongst the Pistons’ young rotation players, and that lack of playoff mettle may override their effort. However, Detroit has more than a fair shot to upset the Knicks, especially if Malik Beasley can continue shooting the three the way he has. Beasley joined Anthony Edwards and Steph Curry as the only players to make over 300 threes this season. This should be a very competitive series, and you know both Madison Square Garden and Little Caesars Arena will be rocking throughout the entirety of it.
#7 Orlando Magic vs. #2 Boston Celtics
Fun fact: this is the only matchup of the first round that will feature two division winners. That’s right, the Orlando Magic won the Southeast Division and then had to beat the Atlanta Hawks in Tuesday’s play-in game to capture the #7 seed. Either way, they’re in, and their reward is last year’s champion Boston Celtics, who return most of their roster and are a year more experienced and somewhat healthier headed into this year’s playoffs. Orlando took a slight step back. Injuries to Paolo Banchero and a season-ending one to Mo Wagner had them hovering around .500 all season. But they got Banchero back and Mo’s brother, Franz, is having another outstanding offensive season. Wagner and Banchero combined for over 50 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists a game between them. And with underrated depth in the likes of veteran Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony and all-world defender Jonathan Isaac, their length could give Boston some problems. Will it be enough to knock off a team that has decided to shoot as many threes as possible in a basketball game and gets a healthy Kristaps Porzingis this go-round? I haven’t mentioned that both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are among the best duos in the Association. Or that both Jrue Holiday and Derrick White have been terrors for opposing guards. The Celtics are loaded and Orlando is game with their stout defense. We will see if the Southeast Division champs can give the 2024 champs a competitive series.
#8 Miami Heat vs. #1 Cleveland Cavaliers
It been more like “Heat Culture” to underachieve in the regular season and then maybe make noise in the playoffs. The Heat have been in the play-in the past few years, and this is no different. After defeating the Chicago Bulls in the #9-10 game, the Heat outlasted the Hawks in overtime to secure the East’s final playoff spot. Miami becomes the first #10-seed to reach the postseason, and their reward is the Cleveland Cavaliers—who have been the best team in the conference since opening night.
Cleveland feels a little different as a team this year. With Kenny Atkinson at the helm, the Cavs appear to be much more focused—much more resolute—as a unit. Their backcourt if Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland play really well together. And with the blossoming of Evan Mobley into an All-Star and more prominent in the offense, the Cavalier won 60 games for the first time since LeBron was there. Atkinson’s offense has the team operating much more efficiently, as Cleveland shot 49.1 percent from the field as a team. Miami is certainly the underdog here. But this series still carries hints of Cleveland proving they’re truly ready for contention. If they are, they will dispatch if the Heat very quickly. But if not, then the Heat, even without Jimmy Butler, can give the Cavaliers a series.
Western Conference
#5 Los Angeles Clippers vs. #4 Denver Nuggets
The Clippers are in a bit of a conundrum. On one hand, they have far exceed expectations this season, especially considering Kawhi Leonard only played 36 games in the regular season and the team lost Paul George to Philly. They rose to the 5th seed, spearheaded by Leonard, James Harden and Norman Powell ending the season with wins to secure that playoff spot, including a thriller over Golden State on the road in which Leonard and Harden were spectacular. On the other hand, it is time for the investments the team has made in superstars—California native superstars who wanted to be there—to produce some real winning. Winning is difficult and players like Harden prove that. James Harden is averaging nearly 23 points and 9 assists in his age-35 season, while playing 79 of the 82 games. He and Powell kept the Clippers afloat while Kawhi dealt with knee rehabilitation and management, and then the team came together and look to be playing their best basketball at the right time. Head coach Tyronn Lue is one of the best in-series adjusters going. If the team can start healthy, this will be a tough out.
On the other side lies Nikola Jokic, the best player in the world, in his most unstable season since becoming an MVP-caliber player half a decade ago. He is having his best season to date, finishing three-tenths shy of averaging a 30-point triple-double got the year. Jokic finished top-3 in four separate statistical categories: points, rebounds, assists and steals. But the Nuggets fired head coach Michael Malone and GM Calvin Both with four games left in the regular season, and interim David Adelman will have a tall task on his have being thrust into taking the helm of a team with championship aspirations. But Denver’s core does have very recent title experience, and that could at least carry them into being competitive in this series as Adelman tried to find his coaching footing. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. must play past All-Star level to match the Clippers’ offensive firepower. To me, this will be the closest of the Western Conference first round series.
#6 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. #3 Los Angeles Lakers
After a slow start, despite Anthony Edwards’s improvement in his fifth season, the Minnesota Timberwolves rebounded to earn a top-6 seed. In a year of ups and downs, the Wolves appear to be on the up. They still have most of their team from the squad that knocked off Denver last year and made the Western Conference Finals. Karl-Anthony Towns is in New York and he was replaced with Julius Randle—where the fit, like their season, has had its ups and downs.
And then there are the Lakers, who have both found a way to be the center of the most shocking move in the season and manage to lighten the load of LeBron James in his 22nd season. Trading Anthony Davis for Luka Doncic meant trading interior defense and scoring for an absolute assassin of a playmaker and offensive weapon, and they’ve build their roster around that for now. The Lakers lack size, but have the ability to do the one thing that has been a weakness for teams with Rudy Gobert on them: play him off the floor. A multi-time Defensive Player of the Year has been made to sit in crucial fourth quarter minutes, and the Lakers can spread the floor in a similar way. Luka sent Ant home last year when he was in Dallas. With LeBron James as a second option, the Lakers offense has become even deadlier. The question will be can their defense and glass maintenance hold up against teams with real size in the paint. Can Ant continue his leap and further announce his arrival as a superstar, or will the 40-year-old King be at the helm of another lengthy playoff run?
#7 Golden State Warriors vs. #2 Houston Rockets
Poor Houston. The Rockets have been among the best teams all season. Center Alpern Sengun was a first-time All-Star and fills the stat sheet, impacting the game in multiple ways. Jalen Green is on his way to becoming one of the premier scoring guards. Both of them are <24 years old with very bright futures headed towards superstardom. Last off-season, the team added veteran experience in Fred Van Vleet and Dillon Brooks. Coached by Ime Udoka, they have a toughness and an identity in that tightness. Yet the consensus is Golden State, a team who was yet again playing in the play-in round, should be favored to win the series. There is something that can be said about playoff experience, and the Warriors now have three players, albeit all of them are at least 35 years old, who raise their level of play in the postseason. Steph Curry, Draymond Green and deadline acquisition Jimmy Butler have proven their possession mettle multiple times over. And while the Warriors probably would like to have avoided playing an extra game before the playoffs, they still get a few extra days to rest and get ready for Houston. The Rockets are better than the Warriors, even the post-deadline Warriors, but better doesn’t guarantee a series win. That’s especially true for teams with a lot of youth in their best players, which the Rockets have. Green and Sengun, along with Amen Thompson, have not experienced a team scouting and preparing for them and only them A lot of growth would have to happen for Houston to overcome Golden State leaning on them with their experience. This is certainly the series that will test how ready the Rockets are to contend as well as how far the Warriors have fallen from their glory days.
#8 Memphis Grizzlies vs. #1 Oklahoma City Thunder
The Memphis Grizzlies have had a perplexing season. Climbing as high as the #2 seed in the West, Memphis looked like true contenders to Oklahoma City. Ja Morant had a solid season, and Jaren Jackson Jr. took a tremendous leap in offensive production, leading the Grizzlies in scoring this year. Combined with Desmond Bane’s steady play and the team seemed set up for the present and future. Then, head coach Taylor Jenkins was fired with a month to go as the Grizzlies slid to the play-in seeding. And after losing to Golden State in the 7-8 matchup, Memphis put the Dallas Mavericks out of their misery to claim the last spot in the West.
Awaiting them are that same OKC Thunder team, who’ve been the best team on offense and defense all year. Winning 67 games and clearing the rest of the conference by double-digit wins, the Thunder only rival Boston as teams with the highest presumed chance to win the NBA title. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having his second-straight MVP-caliber season, Chet Holmgren returned from an early season injury to anchor the help side defense, and Jalen Williams (I had to triple check which Jalen/Jaylin Williams he was) notched his first All-Star selection by averaging 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists a night.
The question the Thunder have to answer is if they’re ready to bear the weight of responsibility being a contender comes with. Their camaraderie is admirable, and the players seem to enjoy one another. But as fun as basketball is, winning is serious business. Look no further than last year’s Minnesota Timberwolves who scoffed at the idea of having to suffer heartbreak in order to ascend to championship-level contention. That team did not reach the Finals, and the West is both talented and experienced enough to beat OKC in a best-of-7. Have the Thunder grown up enough? We’ll see.
That’s it for me. Happy NBA playoffs everyone and I’ll catch you next time.
